FYI Weather
Everett Collection
Unpredictable extremes of weather could be a huge problem. Simon N.
Gosling, a geographer at the University of Nottingham in England, and
Robert E. Davis of the University of Virginia agree that hotter weather
on average isn’t as dangerous as
unexpected weather. A study published in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
in April looked at how temperature fluctuations over a single summer
affect mortality in vulnerable populations. Researchers found that a few
months of rapidly changing conditions—with alternating spells of hotter
and cooler weather—tend to produce more deaths, regardless of how hot
it is overall. That’s especially true in parts of the country that
aren’t accustomed to such rapid changes. “Variability is really
important,” Gosling says, “and it has actually been overlooked quite a
bit.”
Will climate change lead to more unexpected weather? It depends where
you are. In Boston, for example, climate models suggest hotter weather
over the next few decades while variation stays more or less the same.
In Dallas, the average temperature may go up while the variability goes
down (which might
save lives). It’s hard to know for sure what
will happen. “I don’t think as a community,” Davis says, “we understand
why the variability changes from place to place.”
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